Coachella Valley Firebirds at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

0:1

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

CVSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 3.83.1
High danger: 77
Chances: 1211
Shots: 3630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal30

12Scoring chances11

7High-danger chances7

3.75Expected goals3.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–16	2–6	1–5	1.1–1.8
2nd	14–7	9–3	5–2	1.9–0.8
3rd	10–7	1–2	1–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 36
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.75
GSAx: +3.75

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +2.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:04Penalty
1st 17:26Lucas Vanroboys (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 2:17Penalty
2nd 9:46Penalty
2nd 17:14Penalty
2nd 19:59Penalty
3rd 16:34Penalty