Texas Stars at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Texas Stars

2:6

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

TEXHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 4.22.8
High danger: 97
Chances: 1913
Shots: 4026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal26

19Scoring chances13

9High-danger chances7

4.24Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	4–7	2–5	0.8–1.7
2nd	10–6	4–3	1–1	0.8–0.6
3rd	23–6	11–3	6–1	2.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	8:50	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.24
GSAx: +2.24

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 20
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: -3.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:01Tanner Laczynski (0–1)high · tip · 6 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 3:19Matěj Blümel (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 16:46Penalty
1st 18:14Grigori Denisenko (1–2)5v4 · low · 66 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 5:01Brendan Brisson (1–3)low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 9:47Grigori Denisenko (1–4)high · wrist · 23 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 13:13Penalty
2nd 15:22Penalty
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 0:59Arttu Hyry (2–4)5v4 · high · 31 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 5:53Penalty
3rd 11:47Penalty
3rd 14:55Robert Hägg (2–5)empty net · low · 155 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 15:26Matyas Sapovaliv (2–6)empty net · low · 75 ft · beat Rémi Poirier