Milwaukee Admirals at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Milwaukee Admirals

1:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MILIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.94.3
High danger: 18
Chances: 916
Shots: 2243

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal43

9Scoring chances16

1High-danger chances8

1.92Expected goals4.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	2–4	0–3	0.5–1.3
2nd	8–8	2–5	0–1	0.5–0.9
3rd	7–21	5–7	1–4	0.9–2.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	13:04 of the 3rd	6:56	6:56	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 39
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.25
GSAx: +0.25

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.92
GSAx: +0.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:26Penalty
1st 6:50Penalty
1st 14:09Liam Öhgren (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 19:26Penalty
2nd 8:33Penalty
2nd 9:35Ryan Ufko (1–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 1:46Brendan Gaunce (1–2)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 6:55Penalty
3rd 10:45Penalty
3rd 10:45Penalty
3rd 12:07Penalty
3rd 13:04Graeme Clarke (1–3)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 14:37Penalty
3rd 15:11Michael Milne (1–4)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Matthew Murray