Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

4:5

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.02.9
High danger: 64
Chances: 1213
Shots: 3023

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal23

12Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances4

3.00Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	5–7	2–4	1.0–1.6
2nd	15–8	7–5	4–0	1.6–0.9
3rd	6–5	0–1	0–0	0.3–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: -1.00

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.53
GSAx: -1.47

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 5
Saves: 4
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.32
GSAx: -0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:33Penalty
1st 3:26Bogdan Trineyev (0–1)4v5 · high · 23 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
1st 9:13J.R. Avon (1–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 10:46Penalty
1st 10:46Penalty
1st 13:37Zayde Wisdom (2–1)4v5 · high · 167 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 15:38Mike Vecchione (2–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 170 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 4:41Luke Philp (2–3)low · 34 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 14:49Ethen Frank (2–4)low · 39 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 16:10Rhett Gardner (3–4)medium · 26 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 16:56Penalty
2nd 18:08Alexis Gendron (4–4)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 8:57Penalty
3rd 16:53Ethen Frank (4–5)medium · 30 ft · beat Cal Petersen