Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 1.92.9
High danger: 34
Chances: 511
Shots: 2926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal26

5Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances4

1.94Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–7	2–1	1–1	0.4–0.5
2nd	12–10	1–6	1–1	0.7–1.4
3rd	10–9	2–4	1–2	0.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	17:35 of the 3rd	2:25	2:25	+0.051 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -1.07

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: -2.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:25Penalty
1st 10:52Penalty
2nd 0:46Noah Philp (1–0)low · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 2:35Penalty
2nd 2:35Penalty
2nd 2:35Penalty
2nd 3:25Charles Hudon (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 9:22Charles Hudon (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 17:39Jacob Perreault (2–2)low · 34 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 8:24Penalty
3rd 8:24Penalty
3rd 8:24Penalty
3rd 9:03Phil Kemp (3–2)high · rebound · 32 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 10:57Martin Chromiak (3–3)low · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 17:35Joe Hicketts (3–4)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 19:47Jeff Malott (3–5)empty net · medium · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia