AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 10

Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose
1:6
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
2.85.1
High danger
48
Chances
1021
Shots
3140

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal40
10Scoring chances21
4High-danger chances8
2.81Expected goals5.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–112–41–10.6–1.1
2nd10–155–102–21.4–2.1
3rd14–143–71–50.8–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic
Shots faced
40
Saves
34
Allowed
6
xGA
5.06
GSAx
-0.94
Devin Cooley
Shots faced
31
Saves
30
Allowed
1
xGA
2.81
GSAx
+1.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:41Yan Kuznetsov (0–1)low · 64 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 2:37Penalty
  • 1st 2:37Penalty
  • 1st 8:33Penalty
  • 1st 13:03Penalty
  • 1st 16:55Penalty
  • 2nd 0:33William Strömgren (0–2)medium · snap · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 2:04Penalty
  • 2nd 5:40Penalty
  • 2nd 7:24Penalty
  • 2nd 11:19Penalty
  • 2nd 14:13Penalty
  • 2nd 14:33Dryden Hunt (0–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 15:08Penalty
  • 2nd 15:08Penalty
  • 2nd 15:08Penalty
  • 2nd 15:51Penalty
  • 2nd 17:21Martin Frk (0–4)5v4 · medium · wrist · 36 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 1:05Parker Ford (1–4)high · wrist · 22 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 4:38Sam Honzek (1–5)high · 15 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 6:04Penalty
  • 3rd 9:30Penalty
  • 3rd 9:30Penalty
  • 3rd 14:06Penalty
  • 3rd 15:14Rory Kerins (1–6)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic