Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs

0:5

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.52.9
High danger: 17
Chances: 711
Shots: 2327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances7

1.52Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–13	3–4	0–1	0.6–1.1
2nd	8–8	3–5	1–4	0.7–1.1
3rd	6–6	1–2	0–2	0.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 23
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.52
GSAx: +1.52

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: -1.77

Benjamin Gaudreau

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 5
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.64
GSAx: -0.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:45Brendan Gaunce (0–1)medium · tip · 13 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 3:22Sammy Walker (0–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 7:04Penalty
1st 12:40Penalty
2nd 1:17Penalty
2nd 11:00Penalty
2nd 12:02Penalty
2nd 15:27Brendan Gaunce (0–3)medium · 29 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 16:12Brendan Gaunce (0–4)low · 175 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 7:25Penalty
3rd 9:57Penalty
3rd 15:19Graeme Clarke (0–5)high · 13 ft · beat Benjamin Gaudreau