AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 11

Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose
3:6
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
4.53.1
High danger
138
Chances
1713
Shots
3426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal26
17Scoring chances13
13High-danger chances8
4.52Expected goals3.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–114–44–21.2–1.0
2nd11–87–65–41.7–1.5
3rd15–76–34–21.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
34
Saves
31
Allowed
3
xGA
4.52
GSAx
+1.52
Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
3.08
GSAx
-2.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:38Penalty
  • 1st 12:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:21Penalty
  • 1st 18:17Adam Klapka (0–1)high · 5 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 4:27Penalty
  • 2nd 6:38Sam Honzek (0–2)high · 4 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 7:42Hunter Brzustewicz (0–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 10:06C.J. Suess (1–3)4v5 · medium · tip · 13 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 10:56Martin Frk (1–4)5v4 · low · slap · 47 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 11:01Penalty
  • 2nd 16:14Mason Shaw (2–4)low · snap · 36 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 10:52Dominic Toninato (3–4)low · snap · 46 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 18:08Sam Honzek (3–5)empty net · low · 67 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 19:31Clark Bishop (3–6)empty net · low · wrist · 50 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen