Henderson Silver Knights at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

4:5

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

HSKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 1.92.8
High danger: 27
Chances: 69
Shots: 3327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal27

6Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances7

1.91Expected goals2.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–14	3–3	1–2	0.6–1.3
2nd	15–7	2–2	0–2	0.8–0.6
3rd	12–6	1–4	1–3	0.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.91
GSAx: -2.09

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: -2.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:32Jonas Røndbjerg (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 10:15Nikita Nesterenko (1–1)grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 10:21Penalty
1st 12:05Yegor Sidorov (1–2)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 14:34Jake Bischoff (2–2)medium · 5 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 16:49Penalty
2nd 10:21Yegor Sidorov (2–3)high · 19 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 15:24Jaxsen Wiebe (2–4)high · 8 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 17:57Cal Burke (3–4)low · 34 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 2:11Judd Caulfield (3–5)high · 12 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 6:20Penalty
3rd 10:47Dysin Mayo (4–5)low · 47 ft · beat Calle Clang