AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 13

Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans
7:4
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.93.4
High danger
47
Chances
815
Shots
3431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal31
8Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances7
2.86Expected goals3.38

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–102–41–30.6–1.1
2nd16–102–41–31.2–1.1
3rd9–114–72–11.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL37:34 of the 3rd12:2612:26+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
3.39
GSAx
-0.61
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
20
Saves
16
Allowed
4
xGA
1.53
GSAx
-2.47
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
14
Saves
11
Allowed
3
xGA
1.33
GSAx
-1.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:59Brett Murray (1–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 9:45Penalty
  • 1st 10:07Angus Crookshank (1–1)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 12:02Penalty
  • 1st 12:30Brett Murray (2–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 17:21Zack MacEwen (2–2)low · 48 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 5:21Lukáš Rousek (3–2)low · 57 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 6:34Keean Washkurak (3–3)medium · 32 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 11:41Kale Clague (4–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 13:31Tyson Kozak (5–3)low · 32 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 16:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:18Penalty
  • 2nd 16:52Penalty
  • 3rd 6:17Penalty
  • 3rd 7:34Brendan Warren (6–3)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 9:32Penalty
  • 3rd 12:43Penalty
  • 3rd 12:53Angus Crookshank (6–4)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 19:23Isak Rosén (7–4)empty net · low · 28 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen