Iowa Wild at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Iowa Wild

2:4

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

IAMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.93.7
High danger: 13
Chances: 717
Shots: 2543

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal43

7Scoring chances17

1High-danger chances3

1.89Expected goals3.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–16	4–7	1–3	0.9–1.5
2nd	9–16	2–5	0–0	0.6–1.2
3rd	6–11	1–5	0–0	0.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Ferguson

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 39
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.72
GSAx: -0.28

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: -0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:40Travis Boyd (1–0)high · 12 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 7:58Penalty
1st 7:58Penalty
1st 8:17Spencer Stastney (1–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
1st 8:28Kieffer Bellows (1–2)high · 19 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
1st 11:50Penalty
1st 13:12Penalty
1st 19:16Penalty
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 16:52Jake Livingstone (1–3)low · 51 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
2nd 17:40Ryan O’Rourke (2–3)low · 52 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 19:07Ozzy Wiesblatt (2–4)medium · 24 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
3rd 4:55Penalty
3rd 11:27Penalty
3rd 15:55Penalty