AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 13

Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights
2:4
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.02.8
High danger
24
Chances
610
Shots
2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30
6Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances4
2.04Expected goals2.84

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–54–22–11.2–0.5
2nd7–161–50–10.5–1.4
3rd8–91–30–20.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.64
GSAx
-0.36
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.04
GSAx
+0.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:52Christoffer Sedoff (1–0)low · 43 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 2:33Penalty
  • 1st 11:01Penalty
  • 1st 13:37Penalty
  • 1st 14:29Penalty
  • 1st 15:00Penalty
  • 2nd 4:38Peter DiLiberatore (1–1)low · 48 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 10:29Penalty
  • 2nd 10:29Penalty
  • 3rd 8:51Penalty
  • 3rd 10:05Ben McCartney (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 18:02Ben McCartney (1–3)empty net · high · 16 ft
  • 3rd 18:37Jakub Brabenec (2–3)low · 45 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:34Egor Sokolov (2–4)empty net · medium · 24 ft · beat Carl Lindbom