Grand Rapids Griffins at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

GRCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 1.72.8
High danger: 36
Chances: 711
Shots: 2125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances6

1.70Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	1–4	0–2	0.3–1.0
2nd	4–8	3–6	2–3	0.6–1.3
3rd	9–8	3–1	1–1	0.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: -0.23

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:38T.J. Tynan (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 14:36Joe Snively (1–1)low · 59 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 15:18Penalty
2nd 3:26Penalty
2nd 6:06Penalty
2nd 10:40Chase Bradley (1–2)low · 14 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 15:34Penalty
2nd 16:47Penalty
2nd 17:40T.J. Tynan (1–3)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 18:21Penalty
3rd 7:00Penalty
3rd 9:20Penalty
3rd 17:47Penalty
3rd 18:14Calle Rosén (1–4)empty net · low · 180 ft
3rd 19:00Sheldon Dries (2–4)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Trent Miner