Bakersfield Condors at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Bakersfield Condors

5:6

Final / OT

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BAKTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

29%71%

xG: 2.95.3
High danger: 610
Chances: 1418
Shots: 2843

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal43

14Scoring chances18

6High-danger chances10

2.90Expected goals5.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–12	9–5	4–2	1.6–1.2
2nd	9–13	3–7	1–3	0.8–1.5
3rd	6–12	2–4	1–3	0.5–1.3
OT	0–6	0–2	0–2	0.0–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:05	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 37
Allowed: 6
xGA: 5.30
GSAx: -0.70

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 10
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -3.04

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 13
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.95
GSAx: +0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:59Drake Caggiula (1–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 11:34Penalty
1st 12:07Lane Pederson (2–0)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 17:57Matvey Petrov (3–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 0:48Nikita Grebenkin (3–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 1:14Jayden Grubbe (4–1)high · 17 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 2:24Matvey Petrov (5–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 4:11Penalty
2nd 4:52Alex Nylander (5–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 14:08Alex Steeves (5–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 0:35Penalty
3rd 3:00Joseph Blandisi (5–4)low · 36 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 19:01Alex Nylander (5–5)high · 51 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
OT 3:23Alex Nylander (5–6)grade A · 20 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue