Springfield Thunderbirds at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

4:5

Final / OT

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

SPRWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 3.73.4
High danger: 55
Chances: 1513
Shots: 3029

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal29

15Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances5

3.71Expected goals3.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	4–4	1–2	1.0–1.1
2nd	13–7	7–3	3–2	1.8–0.7
3rd	8–7	4–4	1–0	0.9–0.8
OT	0–4	0–2	0–1	0.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	1:25	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.71
GSAx: -0.29

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: -1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:53Rutger McGroarty (0–1)low · backhand · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 5:28Penalty
1st 12:14Penalty
1st 15:11Penalty
1st 16:06Emil Bemström (0–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 33 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 5:17Marcus Sylvegard (1–2)grade A · snap · rebound · 10 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 7:05Penalty
2nd 8:33Valtteri Puustinen (1–3)5v4 · high · backhand · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 16:52Penalty
2nd 19:41Emil Bemström (1–4)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 0:17Matthew Peca (2–4)low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 4:08Scott Harrington (3–4)medium · snap · 13 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 6:00Penalty
3rd 8:44Penalty
3rd 17:51Penalty
3rd 18:04Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (4–4)5v4 · grade A · wrist · 19 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 18:08Penalty
OT 3:38Penalty
OT 4:27Emil Bemström (4–5)5v4 · grade A · snap · rebound · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko