AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 14

Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans
8:2
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
59%41%
xG
4.23.4
High danger
95
Chances
1917
Shots
3431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal31
19Scoring chances17
9High-danger chances5
4.23Expected goals3.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–137–73–11.4–1.4
2nd11–77–53–21.4–0.9
3rd12–115–53–21.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
3.40
GSAx
+1.40
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.79
GSAx
-2.21
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
12
Saves
9
Allowed
3
xGA
1.44
GSAx
-1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:14Penalty
  • 1st 5:01Penalty
  • 1st 5:32Isak Rosén (1–0)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 11:15Isak Rosén (2–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 11:47Cole Reinhardt (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 1st 18:01Penalty
  • 1st 18:01Penalty
  • 1st 18:01Penalty
  • 2nd 8:51Penalty
  • 2nd 9:47Brett Murray (3–1)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 10:21Riley Fiddler-Schultz (4–1)high · 12 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 11:21Penalty
  • 2nd 16:48Brett Murray (5–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 18:16Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 6:57Viktor Neuchev (6–1)grade A · 8 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 7:38Jeremy Davies (6–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Felix Sandström
  • 3rd 8:37Penalty
  • 3rd 9:51Kale Clague (7–2)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 19:59Viktor Neuchev (8–2)low · 15 ft · beat Mads Søgaard