AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 14

Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild
1:5
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
2.72.0
High danger
31
Chances
97
Shots
2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32
9Scoring chances7
3High-danger chances1
2.65Expected goals2.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–73–21–01.0–0.6
2nd11–166–32–01.3–0.9
3rd5–90–20–10.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA35:13 of the 3rd14:4714:47+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Ferguson
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
2.04
GSAx
-2.96
Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
27
Saves
26
Allowed
1
xGA
2.66
GSAx
+1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:22Penalty
  • 1st 13:22Penalty
  • 1st 16:00Penalty
  • 1st 18:12Penalty
  • 1st 18:12Penalty
  • 2nd 5:53Colin Felix (0–1)low · 57 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 2nd 9:40Hunter Haight (1–1)low · 32 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 11:47Brett Seney (1–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 2nd 17:10Colton Dach (1–3)low · 31 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 0:06Penalty
  • 3rd 4:26Penalty
  • 3rd 5:13Cole Guttman (1–4)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 14:58Penalty
  • 3rd 15:13Jalen Luypen (1–5)empty net · low · 46 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson