San Jose Barracuda at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

San Jose Barracuda

2:5

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

SJSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 2.73.1
High danger: 44
Chances: 1012
Shots: 3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances4

2.75Expected goals3.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	4–0	3–0	1.1–0.4
2nd	10–19	2–8	0–4	0.9–2.1
3rd	8–7	4–4	1–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: -1.09

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: +0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:00Penalty
1st 4:00Penalty
1st 14:06Yegor Sidorov (0–1)low · 33 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 0:58Penalty
2nd 7:54Tristan Luneau (0–2)low · 48 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 10:22Penalty
2nd 11:39Jan Myšák (0–3)4v5 · low · 39 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 14:36Nathan Gaucher (0–4)medium · 27 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 19:26Lucas Vanroboys (1–4)low · 36 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 0:22Penalty
3rd 13:29Penalty
3rd 17:17Thomas Bordeleau (2–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 19:54Sam Colangelo (2–5)empty net · medium · 17 ft