Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights

0:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.62.8
High danger: 47
Chances: 1012
Shots: 3319

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal19

10Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances7

2.65Expected goals2.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	0–4	0–3	0.4–0.9
2nd	11–6	5–3	1–2	0.9–0.7
3rd	14–6	5–5	3–2	1.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 33
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: +2.65

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:05Penalty
1st 7:05Penalty
1st 7:09Austin Poganski (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 16:49Penalty
2nd 4:34Penalty
3rd 1:59Penalty
3rd 2:24Andrew Agozzino (0–2)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 3:01Penalty
3rd 13:45Penalty
3rd 14:18Kailer Yamamoto (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 17:11Penalty