Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

1:3

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.92.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 109
Shots: 3420

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal20

10Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

2.88Expected goals2.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	4–3	2–2	1.1–0.7
2nd	13–6	4–4	1–1	1.1–0.7
3rd	9–6	2–2	1–1	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.88
GSAx: +1.88

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.00
GSAx: -1.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:31Ben Meyers (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
1st 9:47Adam Klapka (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 1:14Penalty
2nd 2:50John Hayden (1–2)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 3:36Penalty
2nd 9:38Penalty
2nd 13:30Jani Nyman (1–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 15:48Penalty
3rd 2:42Penalty
3rd 19:02Penalty