Bakersfield Condors at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Bakersfield Condors

3:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BAKTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.52.4
High danger: 62
Chances: 78
Shots: 2829

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances2

2.54Expected goals2.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–6	3–2	3–1	1.0–0.5
2nd	7–12	1–4	1–1	0.6–1.0
3rd	8–11	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:14	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: +0.40

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.54
GSAx: -0.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:26Matvey Petrov (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 12:09Penalty
1st 15:53Nick Abruzzese (1–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 19:41Penalty
2nd 3:47Seth Griffith (2–1)low · 44 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 4:08Penalty
2nd 4:08Penalty
2nd 5:26Penalty
3rd 0:31Penalty
3rd 0:45Penalty
3rd 3:23Penalty
3rd 6:45Penalty
3rd 6:45Penalty
3rd 10:53Penalty
3rd 11:04Penalty
3rd 11:50Lane Pederson (3–1)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
3rd 12:12Penalty
3rd 15:19Robert Mastrosimone (3–2)low · rebound · 44 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue