AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, December 15

Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack
2:5
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
29%71%
xG
2.84.2
High danger
68
Chances
1216
Shots
2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36
12Scoring chances16
6High-danger chances8
2.77Expected goals4.21

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–143–52–11.0–1.3
2nd5–152–90–50.5–2.1
3rd9–77–24–21.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD30:00 of the 3rd20:0010:26+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue
Shots faced
36
Saves
31
Allowed
5
xGA
4.21
GSAx
-0.79
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
2.77
GSAx
+0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:27Penalty
  • 1st 8:44Patrick Brown (0–1)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 1st 11:37Penalty
  • 1st 14:34Penalty
  • 1st 16:35Ryder Korczak (1–1)low · 29 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 6:03Matthew Poitras (1–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 6:51Penalty
  • 2nd 9:01Tyler Pitlick (1–3)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 11:19Penalty
  • 2nd 12:50Jeffrey Viel (1–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 0:42Penalty
  • 3rd 1:05Penalty
  • 3rd 2:35Jake Leschyshyn (2–4)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 2:59Penalty
  • 3rd 10:05Penalty
  • 3rd 16:09Georgii Merkulov (2–5)empty net · high · 18 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 19:00Penalty