Grand Rapids Griffins at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:2

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

GRTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.02.1
High danger: 22
Chances: 66
Shots: 2022

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal22

6Scoring chances6

2High-danger chances2

1.96Expected goals2.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	3–1	0–0	0.8–0.6
2nd	4–9	1–4	1–2	0.5–1.0
3rd	4–5	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: +0.11

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:07Arttu Hyry (0–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 13:08Gabriel Seger (1–1)low · 25 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
1st 16:32Penalty
2nd 0:58Penalty
2nd 4:41William Wallinder (2–1)low · 43 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 8:49Penalty
2nd 13:40Penalty
2nd 19:05Penalty
2nd 19:05Penalty
2nd 19:40Justin Hryckowian (2–2)grade A · 5 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 1:51Sheldon Dries (3–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 8:53Penalty
3rd 18:18Austin Watson (4–2)empty net · low · 41 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg