Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs

1:5

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

23%77%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 16
Chances: 812
Shots: 2924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances6

2.20Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–4	4–2	1–1	0.9–0.4
2nd	5–11	1–6	0–3	0.4–1.5
3rd	11–9	3–4	0–2	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: +1.20

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: -2.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:46Caedan Bankier (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 19:31Penalty
2nd 6:14Matthew Sop (0–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 15:53Hunter Haight (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 19:12Penalty
2nd 19:12Penalty
3rd 0:50Liam Öhgren (0–4)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 6:11Brett Seney (1–4)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 17:43Liam Öhgren (1–5)empty net · low · 63 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks