AHLDashboard
Wednesday, December 18

Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
1:4
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
28%72%
xG
1.62.4
High danger
34
Chances
610
Shots
1730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal30
6Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances4
1.63Expected goals2.44

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9732210.90.5
2nd21302000.20.7
3rd61036130.61.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL30:00 of the 3rd20:008:27+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.44
GSAx
-1.56
Shots faced
17
Saves
16
Allowed
1
xGA
1.63
GSAx
+0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:43Penalty
  • 1st 6:43Penalty
  • 1st 6:43Penalty
  • 1st 7:19Juha Jääskä (0–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 16:20Penalty
  • 1st 17:49Penalty
  • 2nd 6:05Skyler Brind’Amour (0–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 8:22Ryan Suzuki (0–3)low · 34 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 16:25Penalty
  • 2nd 19:18Penalty
  • 2nd 19:18Penalty
  • 3rd 0:36Kieffer Bellows (1–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 1:04Penalty
  • 3rd 3:58Penalty
  • 3rd 19:04Skyler Brind’Amour (1–4)empty net · high · 15 ft · beat Magnus Chrona