Springfield Thunderbirds at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Springfield Thunderbirds

3:4

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SPRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 55
Chances: 109
Shots: 2820

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal20

10Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances5

2.60Expected goals2.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–15	3–6	2–4	1.1–1.8
2nd	11–2	4–2	2–1	0.9–0.4
3rd	5–3	3–1	1–0	0.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	19:06 of the 3rd	0:54	0:54	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -0.40

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: -1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:06Penalty
1st 1:10Penalty
1st 4:45Oliver Okuliar (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 8:57Penalty
1st 8:57Penalty
1st 11:51Penalty
1st 15:00Dalibor Dvorský (1–1)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 19:57Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 14:02Tanner Dickinson (2–1)low · 155 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 14:36Drew Callin (3–1)high · 166 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 18:07Penalty
2nd 19:21Rasmus Asplund (3–2)5v4 · high · tip · 173 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 1:02Penalty
3rd 3:55Ben Steeves (3–3)medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 17:21Penalty
3rd 19:06Wilmer Skoog (3–4)5v4 · low · slap · 44 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko