Syracuse Crunch at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Syracuse Crunch

5:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

SYRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.23.0
High danger: 67
Chances: 128
Shots: 2833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal33

12Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances7

3.21Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	3–3	2–2	0.9–1.2
2nd	15–13	6–3	4–3	1.8–1.1
3rd	6–7	3–2	0–2	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: +0.96

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: -1.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:29Conor Sheary (1–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 18:16Brett Murray (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 8:52Penalty
2nd 11:31Dylan Duke (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 13:43Logan Brown (3–1)low · 63 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 14:56Isak Rosén (3–2)high · 21 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 17:57Gabriel Fortier (4–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 5:12Penalty
3rd 5:54Penalty
3rd 9:06Penalty
3rd 9:54Penalty
3rd 16:55Dylan Duke (5–2)empty net · low · 135 ft · beat Devon Levi