San Diego Gulls at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Diego Gulls

1:5

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 3.92.4
High danger: 32
Chances: 168
Shots: 4033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal33

16Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

3.86Expected goals2.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–12	3–4	1–1	1.2–1.1
2nd	14–12	5–3	0–1	1.2–0.9
3rd	12–9	8–1	2–0	1.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.86
GSAx: +2.86

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -2.03

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 8
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.39
GSAx: -0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:07Kevin Connauton (0–1)low · 65 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 9:16Andrew Agozzino (0–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 1:39Sasha Pastujov (1–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 12:44Sam Lipkin (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 15:26Kevin Connauton (1–4)low · 40 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 18:24Penalty
3rd 1:11Penalty
3rd 3:26Penalty
3rd 5:24Penalty
3rd 13:18Penalty
3rd 16:32Josh Doan (1–5)empty net · low · 139 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 16:34Penalty