AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 18

Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
1:5
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
2.91.8
High danger
34
Chances
98
Shots
3114

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal14
9Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances4
2.91Expected goals1.78

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–31–20–20.6–0.5
2nd10–74–31–01.1–0.6
3rd12–44–32–21.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK30:26 of the 3rd19:3419:34+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
31
Saves
30
Allowed
1
xGA
2.91
GSAx
+1.91
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
14
Saves
9
Allowed
5
xGA
1.78
GSAx
-3.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:13Penalty
  • 1st 5:13Penalty
  • 1st 6:45Noah Philp (0–1)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 7:41Matvey Petrov (0–2)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 8:42Braeden Bowman (1–2)medium · wrist · 28 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 9:07Penalty
  • 1st 10:47Penalty
  • 1st 17:11Penalty
  • 2nd 5:39Penalty
  • 2nd 5:39Penalty
  • 2nd 7:36Connor Carrick (1–3)medium · wrist · 12 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 17:39Penalty
  • 3rd 0:26Matthew Savoie (1–4)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 3rd 11:47Penalty
  • 3rd 16:49Matthew Savoie (1–5)empty net · low · wrist · 31 ft · beat Carl Lindbom