AHLDashboard
Wednesday, December 18

Calgary Wranglers at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Calgary Wranglers
1:2
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CGYONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
10%90%
xG
1.33.5
High danger
15
Chances
515
Shots
1438

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

14Shots on goal38
5Scoring chances15
1High-danger chances5
1.28Expected goals3.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st41212100.30.7
2nd41417030.41.6
3rd61236020.61.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
38
Saves
36
Allowed
2
xGA
3.48
GSAx
+1.48
Shots faced
14
Saves
13
Allowed
1
xGA
1.28
GSAx
+0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:55Penalty
  • 2nd 1:07Penalty
  • 2nd 4:48Penalty
  • 2nd 6:22Sam Morton (1–0)5v4 · low · 36 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 13:37Penalty
  • 2nd 14:14Penalty
  • 2nd 18:31Shawn Element (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Devin Cooley
  • 3rd 9:58Charles Hudon (1–2)low · 39 ft · beat Devin Cooley