AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 20

Toronto Marlies at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Toronto Marlies
2:7
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

TORLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
25%75%
xG
2.43.3
High danger
26
Chances
713
Shots
2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34
7Scoring chances13
2High-danger chances6
2.43Expected goals3.33

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st3–60–00–00.2–0.3
2nd11–193–70–40.9–2.0
3rd15–94–62–21.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen
Shots faced
29
Saves
27
Allowed
2
xGA
2.43
GSAx
+0.43
Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
25
Saves
20
Allowed
5
xGA
2.25
GSAx
-2.75
Vyacheslav Peksa
Shots faced
9
Saves
7
Allowed
2
xGA
1.08
GSAx
-0.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:02Penalty
  • 2nd 0:43Rodrigo Abols (0–1)low · 36 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 2:09Penalty
  • 2nd 5:02Penalty
  • 2nd 6:04Alexis Gendron (0–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 30 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 6:40Jacob Gaucher (0–3)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 8:01Penalty
  • 2nd 9:26Penalty
  • 2nd 10:56Nick Abruzzese (1–3)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 13:01Olle Lycksell (1–4)low · 39 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 17:28Penalty
  • 2nd 19:17Olle Lycksell (1–5)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 1:04Olle Lycksell (1–6)high · 10 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
  • 3rd 11:50Zayde Wisdom (1–7)medium · 25 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
  • 3rd 14:35Penalty
  • 3rd 19:00Roni Hirvonen (2–7)low · 14 ft · beat Cal Petersen