Chicago Wolves at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Chicago Wolves

3:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

CHIIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

83%17%

xG: 3.41.5
High danger: 42
Chances: 146
Shots: 3720

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal20

14Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances2

3.37Expected goals1.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	19–4	7–0	2–0	1.7–0.3
2nd	5–12	2–4	1–1	0.6–0.9
3rd	13–4	5–2	1–1	1.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +0.37

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: -0.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:23Penalty
1st 15:09Ryan Sandelin (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 0:33Penalty
2nd 5:22Noel Gunler (1–1)low · 29 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 19:31Jordan Martel (2–1)high · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 17:54Jordan Martel (3–1)empty net · medium · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 19:43Caedan Bankier (3–2)high · 22 ft · beat Spencer Martin