Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners

4:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.62.5
High danger: 42
Chances: 109
Shots: 2633

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances2

2.60Expected goals2.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–15	2–6	1–1	0.6–1.2
2nd	10–8	2–2	1–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	9–10	6–1	2–0	1.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: +0.49

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -1.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:11Penalty
1st 14:45Penalty
1st 15:06Jonathan Lekkerimäki (0–1)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 16:19Penalty
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 18:40Penalty
2nd 7:23Hunter Drew (1–1)low · 44 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 15:06Penalty
2nd 15:06Penalty
2nd 17:26Danila Klimovich (1–2)low · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 9:01Cameron Hebig (2–2)low · 27 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 9:25Penalty
3rd 14:20Hunter Drew (3–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 19:31Andrew Agozzino (4–2)empty net · low · 89 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs