San Diego Gulls at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

San Diego Gulls

1:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

SDCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.43.3
High danger: 25
Chances: 912
Shots: 2935

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal35

9Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances5

2.42Expected goals3.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–11	6–2	1–0	1.3–0.9
2nd	7–10	1–4	0–1	0.4–1.1
3rd	9–14	2–6	1–4	0.7–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.34
GSAx: -1.66

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.42
GSAx: +1.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:51Penalty
1st 13:31Chase Bradley (0–1)low · 9 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 15:42Penalty
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 12:17Penalty
2nd 15:14Nikita Prishchepov (0–2)low · 52 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 1:04Penalty
3rd 8:18Jan Myšák (1–2)low · 29 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 10:01Penalty
3rd 11:00Penalty
3rd 11:37Jacob MacDonald (1–3)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 12:19Nikita Prishchepov (1–4)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 18:06Nikita Prishchepov (1–5)empty net · low · 91 ft · beat Oscar Dansk