Ontario Reign at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Ontario Reign

4:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ONTCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 2.52.4
High danger: 32
Chances: 98
Shots: 3033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

2.54Expected goals2.45

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–14	1–2	0–1	0.5–0.8
2nd	9–9	2–2	2–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	13–10	6–4	1–0	1.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: +1.45

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:06Penalty
1st 8:13Penalty
1st 12:32Jani Nyman (0–1)low · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 15:55Francesco Pinelli (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 1:07Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 11:35Penalty
2nd 16:24Penalty
2nd 19:58Penalty
3rd 0:48Samuel Fagemo (2–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 17:26Charles Hudon (3–1)empty net · low · 104 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 19:01Samuel Fagemo (4–1)empty net · low · 103 ft · beat Nikke Kokko