Bridgeport Islanders at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Bridgeport Islanders

2:6

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

BRICLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.82.3
High danger: 23
Chances: 710
Shots: 2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29

7Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances3

1.83Expected goals2.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	2–0	2–0	0.6–0.4
2nd	5–8	1–6	0–3	0.3–1.1
3rd	11–11	4–4	0–0	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -0.17

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 13
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.48
GSAx: -3.52

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 10
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.80
GSAx: -0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:20Penalty
1st 5:04Oliver Okuliar (0–1)low · 37 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 6:36Tyce Thompson (1–1)high · 13 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 4:41Tobias Björnfot (1–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 9:25John Leonard (1–3)high · 8 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 9:38Penalty
2nd 9:38Penalty
2nd 14:00Penalty
2nd 15:23John Leonard (1–4)4v5 · low · 45 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 19:08Wilmer Skoog (1–5)medium · 11 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 0:17John Leonard (1–6)medium · 37 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 3:24Gemel Smith (2–6)medium · 7 ft · beat Ken Appleby