Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners

4:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 1.91.8
High danger: 31
Chances: 65
Shots: 2927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal27

6Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances1

1.93Expected goals1.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	3–2	1–1	0.8–0.8
2nd	10–8	1–1	1–0	0.4–0.5
3rd	10–9	2–2	1–0	0.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -2.07

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: -0.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Penalty
1st 2:06Josh Doan (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 32 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 8:52Penalty
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 16:59Penalty
1st 16:59Penalty
1st 16:59Penalty
2nd 2:04Penalty
2nd 8:11Penalty
2nd 10:06Danila Klimovich (1–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 46 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 4:22John Stevens (1–2)medium · backhand · 15 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 5:50Hunter Drew (2–2)low · 37 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 6:32Penalty
3rd 6:32Penalty
3rd 6:32Penalty
3rd 9:37Penalty
3rd 13:29Austin Poganski (3–2)low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 19:24Cameron Hebig (4–2)empty net · low · wrist · 85 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo