AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 21

Toronto Marlies at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Toronto Marlies
7:3
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

TORHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
73%27%
xG
3.32.1
High danger
72
Chances
118
Shots
2727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal27
11Scoring chances8
7High-danger chances2
3.33Expected goals2.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–84–23–00.9–0.6
2nd9–74–31–11.2–0.7
3rd9–123–33–11.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER214:56 of the 3rd5:045:04+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
27
Saves
20
Allowed
7
xGA
3.33
GSAx
-3.67
Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
2.14
GSAx
-0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:14Penalty
  • 1st 8:15Penalty
  • 1st 16:13Penalty
  • 2nd 1:01Brad Hunt (0–1)low · 61 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 10:14Kyle Clifford (1–1)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 13:16Riley Sutter (1–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 19:17Cédric Paré (2–2)low · 35 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 0:23Logan Shaw (3–2)grade A · rebound · 2 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 1:36Penalty
  • 3rd 4:56Bogdan Trineyev (3–3)high · rebound · 60 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 11:09Kyle Clifford (4–3)low · 45 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 12:47Penalty
  • 3rd 14:56Alex Nylander (5–3)low · 45 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 18:01Joseph Blandisi (6–3)empty net · high · 6 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 18:16Roni Hirvonen (7–3)low · 24 ft · beat Clay Stevenson