Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars

4:0

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

90%10%

xG: 2.91.2
High danger: 51
Chances: 133
Shots: 2517

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal17

13Scoring chances3

5High-danger chances1

2.92Expected goals1.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	3–0	0–0	0.9–0.3
2nd	4–5	3–2	2–1	0.7–0.5
3rd	12–5	7–1	3–0	1.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: -1.08

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 17
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.17
GSAx: +1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:06Penalty
1st 6:53Penalty
1st 18:28Jack Becker (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 19:59Matěj Blümel (2–0)low · 54 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 8:10Penalty
2nd 11:42Justin Hryckowian (3–0)high · rebound · 26 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 2:00Penalty
3rd 5:13Matěj Blümel (4–0)medium · 31 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 16:53Penalty