AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 21

Springfield Thunderbirds at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Springfield Thunderbirds
2:5
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

SPRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
28%72%
xG
2.24.2
High danger
48
Chances
819
Shots
2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36
8Scoring chances19
4High-danger chances8
2.23Expected goals4.17

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–162–70–30.3–1.7
2nd8–111–51–10.6–1.2
3rd10–95–73–41.3–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR35:33 of the 3rd14:2714:27+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
36
Saves
31
Allowed
5
xGA
4.16
GSAx
-0.84
Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
2.23
GSAx
+0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:57Dylan Peterson (1–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 1st 16:04Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 17:31Oskar Pettersson (1–2)low · 21 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 0:21Xavier Bourgault (1–3)grade A · 11 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 11:19Penalty
  • 2nd 19:22Penalty
  • 2nd 19:22Penalty
  • 2nd 19:22Penalty
  • 3rd 5:33Jan Jeník (1–4)high · 14 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 7:05Penalty
  • 3rd 12:27Penalty
  • 3rd 17:03Penalty
  • 3rd 17:03Penalty
  • 3rd 17:43Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (2–4)5v4 · grade A · 12 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 19:47Stephen Halliday (2–5)empty net · low · 36 ft · beat Colten Ellis