Hartford Wolf Pack at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hartford Wolf Pack

4:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

HFDPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 2.63.2
High danger: 54
Chances: 1215
Shots: 2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32

12Scoring chances15

5High-danger chances4

2.63Expected goals3.22

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–15	4–6	2–0	0.9–1.2
2nd	7–10	4–6	2–3	0.8–1.3
3rd	11–7	4–3	1–1	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.22
GSAx: +1.22

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:29Penalty
1st 8:42Penalty
1st 12:35Anton Blidh (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 14:25Penalty
1st 16:27Jaroslav Chmelar (2–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 19:24Penalty
1st 19:44Vinni Lettieri (2–1)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 1:22Bryce McConnell-Barker (3–1)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 4:40Penalty
2nd 4:40Penalty
2nd 4:40Penalty
2nd 11:44Penalty
2nd 18:07Penalty
2nd 19:46Patrick Brown (3–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 4:01Penalty
3rd 4:01Penalty
3rd 9:13Penalty
3rd 11:44Penalty
3rd 15:13Penalty
3rd 18:48Anton Blidh (4–2)empty net · low · 61 ft · beat Brandon Bussi