Iowa Wild at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Iowa Wild

1:4

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

IACHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.84.7
High danger: 48
Chances: 917
Shots: 3041

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal41

9Scoring chances17

4High-danger chances8

2.80Expected goals4.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	1–2	1–0	0.6–0.6
2nd	10–20	2–11	1–5	0.8–3.0
3rd	12–11	6–4	2–3	1.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	11:58 of the 3rd	8:02	8:02	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Ferguson

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 37
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.68
GSAx: +0.68

Ruslan Khazheyev

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +1.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:49Penalty
2nd 1:38Charles Alexis Legault (0–1)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
2nd 6:15Penalty
2nd 6:15Penalty
2nd 8:47David Špaček (1–1)low · 11 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
2nd 12:58Penalty
2nd 16:47Trenton Bliss (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
3rd 1:12Noel Gunler (1–3)high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
3rd 2:58Penalty
3rd 11:58Juha Jääskä (1–4)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
3rd 18:24Penalty