Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

2:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.83.2
High danger: 45
Chances: 1114
Shots: 3031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal31

11Scoring chances14

4High-danger chances5

2.84Expected goals3.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–4	4–0	2–0	1.3–0.1
2nd	10–14	2–9	0–2	0.7–1.8
3rd	6–13	5–5	2–3	0.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: -0.79

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:43Penalty
1st 2:43Penalty
1st 9:04Lleyton Roed (1–0)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 11:10Penalty
1st 16:59Brandon Biro (2–0)low · rebound · 40 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 19:18Penalty
2nd 0:25Penalty
2nd 2:33Penalty
2nd 6:09Samuel Fagemo (2–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 7:04Penalty
2nd 12:26Jeff Malott (2–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 13:34Jacob Doty (2–3)low · 41 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 19:48Penalty
3rd 0:42Penalty
3rd 6:49Penalty
3rd 11:36Shawn Element (2–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka