Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors

4:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

57%43%

xG: 3.53.3
High danger: 64
Chances: 1112
Shots: 3438

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal38

11Scoring chances12

6High-danger chances4

3.46Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–9	4–3	1–0	1.2–0.8
2nd	13–9	6–2	5–2	1.9–0.6
3rd	6–20	1–7	0–2	0.3–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 36
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: +1.31

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -0.54

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:44Penalty
1st 2:44Penalty
1st 9:28Cam Dineen (1–0)low · 30 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 9:44Penalty
1st 9:44Penalty
1st 14:48Penalty
1st 15:40Matthew Savoie (2–0)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 19:28Penalty
2nd 8:33Penalty
2nd 10:00Matvey Petrov (3–0)5v4 · low · 25 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 10:41Ronnie Attard (4–0)medium · rebound · 171 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 12:18Filip Bystedt (4–1)high · 12 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 12:59Penalty
2nd 12:59Penalty
2nd 12:59Penalty
2nd 12:59Penalty
2nd 18:56Penalty
3rd 8:42Penalty
3rd 13:56Penalty
3rd 16:04Filip Bystedt (4–2)high · 7 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 16:14Penalty