Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

0:3

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 4.22.7
High danger: 88
Chances: 1813
Shots: 3126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal26

18Scoring chances13

8High-danger chances8

4.15Expected goals2.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	6–4	2–2	1.5–1.0
2nd	11–7	8–5	6–3	1.9–0.9
3rd	8–9	4–4	0–3	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 31
Allowed: 0
xGA: 4.15
GSAx: +4.15

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: -0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:50Penalty
1st 7:13Penalty
1st 7:46Alex Steeves (0–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 8:42Penalty
1st 14:57Penalty
1st 14:57Penalty
1st 14:57Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
1st 19:37Penalty
2nd 2:57Penalty
2nd 3:36Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 9:56Jacob Quillan (0–2)high · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 11:15Penalty
2nd 19:29Penalty
2nd 19:29Penalty
3rd 6:48Penalty
3rd 16:20Penalty
3rd 19:08Fraser Minten (0–3)empty net · low · 142 ft · beat Mads Søgaard