Hartford Wolf Pack at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:5

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HFDSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 3.13.2
High danger: 29
Chances: 1214
Shots: 3226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal26

12Scoring chances14

2High-danger chances9

3.10Expected goals3.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	3–2	0–2	1.2–0.8
2nd	10–11	6–6	0–3	1.1–1.2
3rd	8–8	3–6	2–4	0.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	2	12:55 of the 3rd	7:05	7:05	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: +1.10

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.20
GSAx: -1.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:10Sam Bitten (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 13:44Penalty
1st 19:52Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 2:28Matthew Kessel (1–2)high · 9 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 17:19Penalty
3rd 3:20Penalty
3rd 8:03Penalty
3rd 8:03Penalty
3rd 8:36Matthew Peca (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 10:51Alex Belzile (2–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 12:55Marcus Sylvegard (2–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 14:11Penalty
3rd 14:11Penalty
3rd 19:25Dylan Peterson (2–5)empty net · grade A · 9 ft · beat Dylan Garand