AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 27

Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets
3:6
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
27%73%
xG
2.74.4
High danger
66
Chances
814
Shots
2637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal37
8Scoring chances14
6High-danger chances6
2.67Expected goals4.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–94–13–01.1–0.6
2nd11–110–50–30.6–1.4
3rd7–174–83–31.0–2.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws
Shots faced
37
Saves
31
Allowed
6
xGA
4.35
GSAx
-1.65
Devon Levi
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.67
GSAx
-0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:44Ryan Schmelzer (1–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 2:24Penalty
  • 1st 2:52Šimon Nemec (2–0)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 7:40Penalty
  • 1st 18:48Penalty
  • 2nd 1:11Isak Rosén (2–1)low · 55 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 3:00Šimon Nemec (3–1)low · 40 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 18:07Riley Fiddler-Schultz (3–2)high · 4 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 1:37Riley Fiddler-Schultz (3–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 4:54Viktor Neuchev (3–4)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 8:10Penalty
  • 3rd 9:41Graham Slaggert (3–5)4v5 · medium · 24 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 12:14Penalty
  • 3rd 16:51Brett Murray (3–6)empty net · medium · 16 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 17:40Penalty