Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves

1:4

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.92.2
High danger: 53
Chances: 1710
Shots: 4418

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal18

17Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances3

3.91Expected goals2.15

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–11	6–6	2–1	1.2–1.2
2nd	16–2	6–1	2–1	1.5–0.3
3rd	14–5	5–3	1–1	1.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	6:55 of the 3rd	13:05	13:05	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 43
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.91
GSAx: +2.91

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: -1.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:18Penalty
1st 11:25Kieffer Bellows (0–1)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Spencer Martin
1st 18:20Penalty
1st 19:03Ryan Ufko (0–2)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 3:00Penalty
2nd 14:43Penalty
2nd 19:05Penalty
3rd 0:52Penalty
3rd 6:55Kieffer Bellows (0–3)high · 7 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 13:45Penalty
3rd 18:54Ronan Seeley (1–3)low · 45 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 19:53Ozzy Wiesblatt (1–4)empty net · low · 151 ft · beat Spencer Martin