Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild

0:5

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.62.8
High danger: 15
Chances: 513
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances5

1.56Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–6	2–0	1–0	0.4–0.3
2nd	10–11	1–7	0–2	0.6–1.3
3rd	9–13	2–6	0–3	0.5–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.56
GSAx: +1.56

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 13
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: -2.45

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.26
GSAx: +0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:22Penalty
1st 6:24Penalty
1st 18:10Penalty
2nd 1:54Gerry Mayhew (0–1)high · 13 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 2:59Penalty
2nd 8:05Penalty
2nd 9:03Gerry Mayhew (0–2)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 9:45Penalty
2nd 9:45Penalty
2nd 11:57Penalty
2nd 12:46Penalty
2nd 13:33Zach Sanford (0–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 14:40Colton Dach (0–4)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 19:53Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
2nd 19:53Penalty
3rd 4:48Zach Sanford (0–5)medium · 17 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj