Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.61.7
High danger: 93
Chances: 175
Shots: 3523

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal23

17Scoring chances5

9High-danger chances3

3.65Expected goals1.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–5	6–2	4–2	1.4–0.5
2nd	11–7	5–1	2–1	1.2–0.6
3rd	9–11	6–2	3–0	1.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.65
GSAx: -0.35

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: -1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:15Matthew Savoie (0–1)high · wrist · 6 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 10:28Lleyton Roed (1–1)medium · tip · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 11:45Penalty
1st 14:04Penalty
1st 14:04Penalty
1st 14:15Phil Kemp (1–2)low · slap · 58 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 19:00Ben Meyers (2–2)high · wrist · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 3:47Penalty
2nd 12:27Nikolas Brouillard (3–2)low · wrist · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 15:23Penalty
2nd 15:59Penalty
2nd 16:48Brandon Biro (4–2)5v4 · high · slap · 35 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 2:46Penalty
3rd 11:34Penalty
3rd 15:14Penalty
3rd 19:27Connor Carrick (4–3)low · slap · 58 ft · beat Nikke Kokko